Forecaster

At HHSC, we strive to make a difference in the lives of our fellow citizens. We need your sound actuarial, statistical, and scientific judgment, and your ability to make logical decisions and recommendations to the team.

The Actuary I (Forecaster) plays an important role on the Health and Human Services Forecasting Team, with assignments ranging from forecasting to providing critical support of forecasting for various HHS program, including Medicaid Acute/Long-Term Services and Supports, Vendor Drug, Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), or Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF).

Working with other forecasters and HHS program staff and team members, the Forecaster will perform complex and interesting statistical and research functions with moderate supervision from the Team Lead. The Forecaster is responsible for the initial run of all forecasts from their area and will verify and maintain the integrity of data used in forecasting and reporting for their area. The Forecaster position requires moderate judgment, with moderate latitude to make recommendations on data issues and forecasts. The successful candidate will balance sound actuarial, statistical, and scientific judgment with logical decisions to make recommendations to the team.

Under the direction of the manager/team lead, the Forecaster develops complex statistical models, such as time series models, using SAS, Autobox, or other software, including Excel, to forecast HHS programs and evaluate the performance of such models (40%). The Forecaster also provides reports to management, the Legislative Budget Board, and others, on a monthly or quarterly basis, on the performance of models, as well as trends seen in the data (20%), and performs ad-hoc queries and runs simulations on request (20%). The Forecaster tracks and monitors data and forecasts for trends and performance (15%) Other duties as assigned (5%).